Comments on: Probabilities, huh! http://www.grok.in/blog/2008/05/03/probabilities-huh/ (ignorance killed the cat, curiosity was framed) Wed, 16 Jun 2010 18:48:41 +0000 hourly 1 By: sanket http://www.grok.in/blog/2008/05/03/probabilities-huh/comment-page-1/#comment-160 sanket Sun, 04 May 2008 00:33:02 +0000 http://www.grok.in/?p=46#comment-160 Oh you have an update! I started reading your post on google reader (which apparently fetched this before you posted the update), and got scared when you said the answer is 2/3. You know, already the intuition's taken a beating and then this... Coming to your post, nice to see you have put up a detailed solution. But I don't agree with your explanation about why people reach the wrong answer, which is 1/2. IMO, once you start thinking in terms of the different permutations, the probability (ahem) of reaching the wrong answer is less. Rather, the way a lot of people intuitively "solve" the problem (unless they have a very discerning intuition) is different: "Ok, one of them is a boy. So, the other one is either a boy or a girl. So, the chance of the other being a boy is half." So, the reason why we reach the wrong answer is that intuitively we take the possible outcomes as *combinations* rather than *permutations*. Oh you have an update! I started reading your post on google reader (which apparently fetched this before you posted the update), and got scared when you said the answer is 2/3. You know, already the intuition’s taken a beating and then this…
Coming to your post, nice to see you have put up a detailed solution. But I don’t agree with your explanation about why people reach the wrong answer, which is 1/2. IMO, once you start thinking in terms of the different permutations, the probability (ahem) of reaching the wrong answer is less. Rather, the way a lot of people intuitively “solve” the problem (unless they have a very discerning intuition) is different: “Ok, one of them is a boy. So, the other one is either a boy or a girl. So, the chance of the other being a boy is half.” So, the reason why we reach the wrong answer is that intuitively we take the possible outcomes as *combinations* rather than *permutations*.

]]> By: Nikhil http://www.grok.in/blog/2008/05/03/probabilities-huh/comment-page-1/#comment-159 Nikhil Sat, 03 May 2008 09:27:50 +0000 http://www.grok.in/?p=46#comment-159 Hey, I think you solved the wrong problem... Hey, I think you solved the wrong problem…

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